Democrats hold a 10-point advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, according to the latest in a series of polls showing the party in a strong position ahead of November’s midterm elections.
In a three-day Emerson College Polling survey, conducted this past weekend, 50 percent of likely voters said they would back a generic Democratic candidate for Congress, while 40 percent said they would prefer the average Republican in November. Another 10 percent said they’re not sure.
Democrats’ 10-point advantage over Republicans grew 3 points from last month, when 49 percent of likely voters said they’d support the Democratic candidate for Congress and 42 percent said they’d prefer the Republican.
Throughout the second half of 2025, the share of likely voters who preferred Democratic representatives hovered at 44 percent, while the share who supported Republicans hovered at around 42 percent.
In January, however, support for Democrats ticked up to 48 percent before continuing to rise to 50 percent. Support for the GOP candidate, meanwhile, remained steady at 42 percent until this month, when it slipped by 2 points.
“Democrats’ strength is driven by an increase in support among Hispanic voters, women, and independents,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement, noting Democrats are favored among Hispanic voters by a 35-point margin, among women by a 21-point margin and among independents by a 19-point margin.
The Emerson poll comes as Democrats grow more confident in their chances ahead of the midterm elections, buoyed by President Trump’s poor approval ratings on the economy and rising frustration surrounding the Iran war and rising gas prices.
While Democrats have long viewed a House majority as within reach, they are increasingly eyeing the Senate, where the map heavily favors Republicans.
In the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats would need to defend all 47 seats and flip four GOP seats to win control in November. By contrast, in the House, Democrats would need to flip just three seats to win control of the 435-voting member body.
The Emerson poll also follows similar surveys showing Democrats’ growing advantage among voters.
A Cook Political Report survey last week of voters in the 36 most competitive congressional districts found Democrats had a 6-point advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot.
The Emerson poll included 1,000 likely voters and was conducted April 24-26. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.
