Chinese buyers snapped up at least 10 shipments of Argentine soybeans after Buenos Aires removed export taxes on the grain on Monday, three traders confirmed Tuesday. This development adds further pressure on American farmers, already cut off from their main buyer and facing low market prices.
Argentina’s temporary suspension of export duties boosts the competitiveness of its soybeans, prompting traders to secure shipments for China’s fourth-quarter demand—a period typically dominated by U.S. exports, now disrupted by Washington’s ongoing trade dispute with Beijing.
Two traders with direct knowledge of the transactions said Panamax vessels carrying 65,000 metric tons each are scheduled for delivery in November, with CNF (cost plus freight) prices quoted at a premium of $2.15 to $2.30 per bushel over the November soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). One trader added that Chinese buyers have booked 15 cargoes.
These transactions mark another setback for U.S. farmers, who are losing out on billions of dollars in soybean sales to China during their peak marketing season. Unresolved trade talks and the rise of South American competitors, especially Brazil, are filling the void, according to traders and market analysts.
“These deals were concluded last night after Argentina’s export tax decision,” said one trader, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media. “This clearly means China doesn’t need American beans.”
Traders confirm that China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has yet to purchase any U.S. soybeans from this fall’s harvest. On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call, but no agricultural updates were provided, sending Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures—already near a five-year low—even lower.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that China had nearly completed October soybean purchases and had reserved about 15% of November needs exclusively from South America. In previous years, China typically bought 12–13 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans by this time for September–November delivery.
Argentina announced that the temporary suspension of grain taxes would last until October or until exports reached $7 billion, triggering a drop in Chinese soybean meal futures on Tuesday. As of 06:39 GMT, the most-active Dalian soybean meal futures fell 3.5%, while Dalian soybean oil futures also dropped 3.5%.
“The price decline was primarily driven by Argentina’s lifting of grain export duties yesterday, which made prices more attractive to Chinese buyers given favorable crushing margins,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. “However, the impact of this news is likely to be short-lived, as the policy will only be in effect for just over a month, and Argentina’s overall stocks are limited,” he added.
Argentina normally imposes a 26% export duty on soybeans. China’s soybean imports had already reached record highs in May, June, July, and August, contributing to stockpiles that also serve as a hedge against potential fourth-quarter supply disruptions.
“Looking forward, the key factors to watch are actual purchases and shipments of Argentine soybeans, as well as the outcome of the U.S.-China negotiations and how they may impact soybean imports in the fourth quarter and early next year,” said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures.
