According to Statistics Canada, this kind of shift has only been recorded once in the last 20 years, excluding the unusual circumstances during the Covid-19 pandemic in August and September 2021.
The same pattern appeared earlier this year in June, but before that, it hadn’t occurred since 2006. Experts say the recent trend is largely tied to a rise in Canadian patriotism and growing frustration with President Donald Trump’s relentless tariffs on cross-border goods, along with his remarks about wanting to make Canada “the 51st state.”
In July, Washington implemented higher tariffs on items not exempt under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. But Wayne Smith, director of the Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research at Toronto Metropolitan University, said other elements also contributed to the decline.
Canadians have become more cautious due to the shaky economy, the arrest of undocumented migrants by U.S. authorities, and an unfavorable exchange rate. “You put that all together and … you’re going to see a big reduction in tourism as a result,” Smith explained.
That pullback resulted in a staggering 32.4 percent decrease in return trips from the United States to Canada in July, representing roughly 2.6 million visits, according to Statistics Canada.
Smith believes that many Canadians who skipped trips to the U.S. may have rediscovered their own country’s attractions instead. “When people get nervous, they tend to stay closer to home,” he said. “They tend to do more drive destinations. They tend to stay more in province and do shorter trips.”
Meanwhile, the same behavior wasn’t mirrored by Americans. U.S. travel to Canada fell just 3.0 percent year over year, totaling nearly 3.3 million visits. Some visitors reportedly came out of a sense of solidarity, while others continued their travel plans without paying much attention to the political atmosphere. “It’s business as usual for most Americans,” Smith added.
The overall decline in U.S. visits was more than compensated for by a surge in travelers from other regions. Statistics Canada noted that international arrivals in July jumped 10.3 percent compared to the previous year.
Visitors from Europe and Asia both saw 10.3 percent year-over-year increases, with the U.K., France, and India ranking as the top three source countries for overseas tourists. Canadian return trips from abroad also increased 8.3 percent. Smith expects similar numbers when August data is released, though he warned that winter could present new challenges as “snowbirds” traditionally head south to Florida and other warmer destinations.
“These are people spending tens of thousands of dollars to visit the US and they’re doing everyday things like going shopping, grocery shopping and to the doctor, which has a large economic impact,” Smith said. “If the snowbirds don’t decide not to go back … they’re going to feel it pretty heavily.”
The full report and interactive tourism data are available through Statistics Canada’s Frontier Counts dashboard.
