Earlier this month, President Donald Trump rolled out a $12 billion assistance package for U.S. farmers after previously promising to “NEVER LET OUR FARMERS DOWN.” Yet industry leaders warn that thousands of farms are still likely to slide into bankruptcy before the year ends.
Trump has pledged to boost domestic agricultural production and has said it is a “big part” of his strategy to bring down grocery prices. But many farmers across the country are grappling with growing financial strain, according to advocates and farm groups.
Grain producers have been especially battered by trade disruptions linked to tariff increases. Of the new aid, $11 billion from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farmer Bridge Assistance Program is slated to go to row-crop farmers.
Soybean growers have taken the biggest hit from the president’s trade war with China. China accounted for 54% of U.S. soybean exports last year, according to the American Soybean Association, leaving farmers highly exposed when relations soured.
The one-time payments, however, are unlikely to significantly relieve the pressure farmers have faced over the past three years, driven by higher input costs and falling crop prices.
U.S. crop farmers have lost an estimated $34.6 billion this year alone before crop insurance payouts and other government assistance, according to the American Farm Bureau. The outlook heading into 2026 remains grim.
Dan Wright, president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau, said federal support is welcome but insufficient. “A program that provides roughly $50 an acre will not save the thousands of family farms that will go bankrupt before the end of the year,” Wright told The Guardian.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has described the aid package as temporary relief while the Trump administration works to build longer-term trade and farm safety nets.
Farmers have been caught in the crossfire of Trump’s trade war with China during both of his presidential terms. During his first administration, $23 billion was distributed to farmers impacted by tensions between Washington and Beijing, according to Reuters. In 2025, farmers are expected to receive about $40 billion in economic and disaster assistance.
Earlier this year, China agreed to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, though it remains unclear whether those commitments will be fully met.
In the coming weeks, farmers will be meeting with lenders to secure loans for seed, fertilizer, and other inputs for spring planting. Many expect to carry over debt from operating loans taken out last year. Agricultural credit conditions for crop farmers have worsened, according to the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, as weaker farm income has reduced liquidity and increased reliance on borrowing.
Some farmers may opt to plant more soybeans in 2026, even though export demand is weaker and profitability trails corn, according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX.
Farm bankruptcies are expected to exceed 1,000 this year, with Arkansas seeing the highest number. That would surpass the 2019 peak of 599 filings, though it remains well below the nearly 6,000 bankruptcies recorded in 1987 during the farm crisis of the 1980s. Despite mounting stress, Suderman said he does not anticipate a repeat of that era.
Looking ahead, Suderman said the farm economy faces a bleak path into 2026, but conditions could shift quickly if China resumes large-scale purchases of U.S. agricultural goods and the Environmental Protection Agency expands domestic biofuel production.
“If those two events happen, then I think we could start healing the ag economy and move in a positive direction toward recovery,” he told The Guardian.
