The chances that President Donald Trump could face a third impeachment before the close of 2026 have jumped from 5% to 15% on the betting platform Polymarket following the release of additional emails linked to Jeffrey Epstein.
On Wednesday, the House Oversight Committee published more than 20,000 pages of documents. Among them are messages in which Epstein claims Mr. Trump “knew about the girls” and at one point asked Ghislaine Maxwell to “stop.” Epstein also refers to Mr. Trump as “that dog that hasn’t barked.”
No lawmakers have formally filed articles of impeachment, and senior Republicans continue to stand firmly behind the president. The White House dismissed the material as a “hoax.” Spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said Democrats were “desperately trying to distract from their shutdown defeat.”
Despite the political posture, online betting shifted sharply. Polymarket contracts on a Trump impeachment rose from 5 cents to 15 cents on the dollar between Wednesday and Friday, representing a threefold increase in perceived likelihood.
CNN polling analyst Harry Enten described the Epstein issue as “the president’s worst by far.” While 87% of Republicans approve of Mr. Trump’s overall performance, only 45% back his handling of questions related to Epstein, according to the network’s latest survey.
Mark Shanahan, a professor of American politics at the University of Surrey, said the outcome depends heavily on the 2026 mid-term elections. “If the GOP loses the House, Democrats will start a third impeachment; if they also lose the Senate, that process will be completed,” he told Newsweek.
A bipartisan petition aiming to force a floor vote on the release of all federal Epstein records reached the 218-signature threshold on Wednesday. The House is expected to vote on the measure in the near future.
Mr. Trump, impeached and acquitted twice during his first term, has denied any wrongdoing and maintains that his acquaintance with Epstein ended in the early 2000s.
