Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association, is sounding the alarm over what he calls an unprecedented agricultural crisis, as China has placed zero soybean orders ahead of this year’s harvest. Traditionally, China buys about 25% of the U.S. crop, but with prices down 40% from three-year highs and production costs climbing, hundreds of thousands of farmers are bracing for heavy financial losses unless Washington and Beijing reach a trade deal soon.
With harvest season just beginning, American soybean farmers find themselves without any orders from their single largest customer. For Ragland, a ninth-generation farmer, the situation is dire. “Right now, we’re in a very dire situation,” he said in a TikTok video that quickly drew widespread attention to farmers’ hardships.
Speaking with CNN, Ragland laid out how critical China has been to the soybean market. “China takes more of our soybeans than all other foreign customers combined,” he explained, pointing out that 50% of U.S. soybeans are exported, with China alone accounting for a quarter of the demand.
The absence of Chinese demand marks a major break from long-standing trading patterns. Typically, by this point in the season, nearly a third of sales to China would already be locked in. That represents about 8%-9% of the entire U.S. crop that would normally be sold by now, which currently sits with no buyers.
The fallout is immediate for farmers. Ragland told CNN that prices have dropped 40% since their highs three years ago, while both interest rates and production expenses have surged. “We’re looking at basically losses for the upcoming year if commodity prices don’t improve,” he said. Current futures for September sit near $10.10 per bushel—well below the estimated $11.03 production cost. On Ragland’s farm alone, the math points to $750,000 in losses, forcing him to lean on loans just to stay afloat.
“Right now we’re planting a crop that looks like it will be produced at a loss,” he admitted. “By fall, when the soybeans are harvested and ready to sell, we’re gonna need a drastic improvement in our markets or it’s gonna get even tougher for farm families all across this country.” He emphasized that all 500,000 soybean farmers are facing similar budget constraints, with little margin for error.
The ripple effects reach far beyond individual farmers. Agriculture contributes $9.5 trillion annually to the U.S. economy—about 18.7% of overall economic output—and supports more than a million jobs. Soybean exports alone are tied to over 231,000 jobs in farming, manufacturing, transportation, and related industries. Ragland warned of how this impacts small-town America: “That trickles down to our rural communities. Our rural communities are a lot of folks across this country. And that impacts small business. That impacts just the whole infrastructure within our communities.”
Each $1 billion in agricultural exports sustains nearly 6,000 jobs, and the soybean and corn trade directly supports over 212,000 positions. The economic multiplier means trade disruptions spread through nearly every sector connected to agriculture.
The roots of the crisis lie in ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes. American soybeans face a 20% retaliatory tariff, bringing the total duty rate up to 34% compared to competitors. China has responded by pivoting to Brazil, where imports have surged to record levels. In March 2025, Brazil exported 15.7 million tons of soybeans, with three-quarters going to China—the largest monthly shipment ever. In 2024, China sourced 71% of its soybean imports from Brazil, cutting U.S. farmers further out of the market. In an August 19 letter to President Trump, the American Soybean Association warned that “China has contracted with Brazil to meet future months’ needs to avoid purchasing any soybeans from the United States.”
Despite being a Trump supporter, Ragland has been outspoken about the urgent need for action. “We desperately need to get something rectified quickly with China, our biggest export customer,” he told CNN. He stressed that waiting is not an option: “We’re planning a crop that looks like it will be produced at a loss,” he said, underscoring the time-sensitive nature of the issue.
The broader farm economy is already under strain. Corn growers report prices down more than 50% since 2022, while production costs have barely budged. This downturn coincides with forecasts for one of the largest U.S. soybean harvests ever—4.3 billion bushels. Without Chinese demand, that surplus could push prices even lower, deepening financial pain across the industry. The scenario recalls the 2018–2020 trade war, when U.S. agriculture lost $26 billion, with soybeans making up $20 billion of those losses.
As harvest nears, the clock is ticking. Storage bins will soon fill, adding costly pressure on farmers forced to sit on unsold crops or dump them at bargain-basement prices. While Trump signed an executive order in August extending the tariff truce with China through November 10, the measure doesn’t directly address agriculture.
Ragland framed the crisis as a test of national strength. “We want to keep this nation strong. We’re the backbone of America,” he said. Though he insists Trump “loves farmers” and “is trying to do what’s right for this country,” Ragland’s message is clear: “We gotta make sure that we survive through these tough times.”
